Recent Swings
Updated: 1 minute ago • Threshold: ≥5%
Tag Filter:
| Market | Δ Prob | Conf | Ticker | Trade Idea | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? AGG (5) |
↓
-1.9%
|
79% | $NVDA | Strong dovish sentiment suggests future low discount rates, disproportionately benefiting high-growth technology companies whose valuations depend heavily on far-out cash flows. | 3 hours ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? AGG (5) |
↑
+1.3%
|
70% | $SMH | Bitcoin's major bull thesis is underpinned by continuous advancements in compute power, making semiconductor demand the primary proxy for digital asset inflation bets and infrastructure spending. | 1 hour ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? AGG (2) |
↓
-8.3%
|
65% | $SPY | A sharp decline in perceived rate cut probability suggests escalating financial stress, creating a strong structural tailwind for risk assets (equities) as discount rates fall regardless of official signaling. | 1 hour ago |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 17, 2026? AGG (4) |
↑
+122.7%
|
46% | $NVDA | Extreme bullish signal on advanced computing infrastructure demand, anticipating major foundational AI model releases will drive sustained semiconductor CAPEX. | 1 hour ago |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on August 3? AGG (3) |
↓
-98.9%
|
44% | $SPY | The prediction market suggests strong institutional bullish conviction on S&P 500 breadth and momentum continuation. | 3 hours ago |
| Will Palantir say "Insurance" during earnings call? AGG (2) |
↓
-99.0%
|
42% | $SPY | Failure to validate secondary sectors signals potential market skepticism and broad cooling in high-growth software valuations. | 36 minutes ago |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting? |
↑
+200.0%
|
40% | $XLF | Anticipated rate cuts decrease cost of capital for financial institutions and boost consumer credit activity, directly benefiting the banking sector. | 22 hours ago |
| Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings? |
↓
-99.9%
|
40% | $XLI | The sharp historical drop indicates deep market apprehension regarding corporate earnings and guidance flow across industrial sectors. This sentiment suggests underlying weakness in the broader cyclicals. | 3 hours ago |
| Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings? |
↓
-99.9%
|
40% | $XLI | The collapse in conviction for commodity-linked earnings suggests a sector rotation out of cyclical industrials due to rising interest rates and strained corporate margins. | 11 hours ago |
| Will CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) beat quarterly earnings? |
↑
+114.6%
|
40% | $MRNA | The massive upward swing signals acute biotech enthusiasm; following momentum play based on breakthrough genetics potential. | 2 hours ago |
| Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings? |
↓
-99.9%
|
40% | $WMT | Extreme negative price action implies over-sold conditions; establishing a contrarian long bounce bet on consumer resilience. | 2 hours ago |
| Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings? |
↑
+423.7%
|
40% | $XLP | A strong earnings beat in the consumer staples sector validates resilient underlying demand and stable pricing power for essential goods. | 3 hours ago |
| Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7%? |
↑
+107.7%
|
40% | $SMH | The strong market conviction in moderate 2026 inflation signals stabilizing global demand and stable industrial cycle growth, benefiting semiconductor-exposed exporters like South Korea. | 6 hours ago |
| Will Google be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
↑
+1000.0%
|
40% | $GOOGL | Strong developer sentiment suggests Google's advanced AI tooling ecosystem (Gemini, Colab) will solidify its market lead in web development and code generation beyond competitors. | 3 hours ago |
| Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on August 4? |
↑
+100.0%
|
40% | $ARKK | Aggressive bearish positioning on high-beta altcoins suggests sector rotation and liquidity tightening, implying a pullback in speculative growth assets that are first to contract during risk-off cycles. | 20 hours ago |
| Will SpaceX say "Tesla" during earnings call? |
↑
+104.6%
|
40% | $TSLA | Synergy hype between space and automotive sectors suggests increased focus on vertical integration narratives. | 36 minutes ago |
| Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? |
↑
+187.5%
|
40% | $MSFT | Microsoft's deep integration of OpenAI and cloud services solidifies its position as a leader in enterprise AI computing, anticipating continued outperformance over the next few years. | 2 hours ago |
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on August 4? |
↑
+100.0%
|
40% | $BAC | The convergence towards clear regulatory benchmarks for digital asset utility (cross-border payments) stabilizes and benefits established financial institutions involved in modernized payment infrastructure. | 1 hour ago |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on August 6? |
↑
+100.0%
|
40% | $COIN | The slight positive movement indicates increasing risk appetite and speculative capital flow into digital assets (BTC). $COIN acts as a direct proxy for exchange volume growth, institutional interest in crypto products, and overall market rebound sentiment. | 1 minute ago |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of August 3 2026? |
↑
+118.7%
|
40% | $GOOGL | Long-term thesis on AI integration and continued cloud services dominance; robust positioning for the next cycle of enterprise growth. | 9 hours ago |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in August? |
↑
+99.9%
|
40% | $NVDA | Sustained high demand for AI compute cycles and exceptional momentum support the continuation of NVDA's upward trend despite potential overextension. | 9 hours ago |
| Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase July 28-August 3? |
↓
-99.4%
|
40% | $IBIT | The sharp drop in probability suggests temporary over-selling or market de-risking regarding MSTR's specific announcement, offering a contrarian entry into the sustained BTC macro trend. | 11 hours ago |
| Will XRP reach $1.20 July 27-August 2? |
↓
-98.7%
|
40% | $NVDA | Increased institutional focus on cross-border payments and digital assets signals robust long-term demand for high-performance computing infrastructure. | 19 hours ago |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $240 in August? |
↑
+97.7%
|
39% | $AMZN | Overvaluation relative to macro slowdown; decreased probability suggests mounting pressure on e-commerce profit growth and AWS expenditure. | 9 hours ago |
| Will the price of Solana be above $120 on August 8? |
↓
-97.1%
|
39% | $NVDA | The extreme positive momentum in crypto (Solana) suggests general 'risk-on' capital flows and heightened speculative fervor for high-beta technologies. NVDA is the primary equity proxy benefiting from this parabolic tech enthusiasm. | 11 minutes ago |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on August 5? |
↓
-91.7%
|
37% | $QQQ | The deep percentage drop signals an overreaction and capitulation event. Expect a mean-reverting bounce in growth assets as liquidity seeks risk play. | 14 hours ago |
| Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? |
↓
-90.9%
|
37% | $META | The extreme downward swing suggests an overreaction and generalized panic regarding discretionary spending in entertainment media. Taking a contrarian long position on a large-cap advertising play like Meta, anticipating a bounce as the market digests TKO's specific failure. | 3 hours ago |
| Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 27-August 2? |
↓
-66.7%
|
36% | $QQQ | The large negative swing indicates strong bearish momentum and cooling risk appetite in crypto assets, correlating with a broader de-risking phase for major tech/growth indexes. | 22 hours ago |
| Will XRP reach $1.10 on August 2? |
↓
-90.0%
|
36% | $QQQ | The extreme speculative nature of crypto targets suggests a macro risk-off environment; any liquidity withdrawal event will hit high beta tech assets first. | 19 hours ago |
| MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase July 28-August 3? |
↓
-90.0%
|
36% | $IBIT | Despite the specific prediction failure, underlying institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust, suggesting a buy-the-dip setup on liquid BTC ETF proxies. | 11 hours ago |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on August 5? |
↓
-90.0%
|
36% | $SOXX | Ethereum growth relies heavily on underlying computing power and AI adoption. The attempted moves validate continued secular demand in the semiconductor sector. | 14 hours ago |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on August 2? |
↓
-88.9%
|
36% | $QQQ | The rapid decline in forward conviction regarding digital asset upside suggests a broad risk-off sentiment, correlating to tech index weakness. | 23 hours ago |
| Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on August 7? |
↑
+82.5%
|
33% | $QQQ | High conviction on a major positive catalyst shift suggests strong macro-tech bullish sentiment mirroring digital asset optimism. | 21 minutes ago |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 Week of August 3 2026? |
↑
+62.0%
|
25% | $META | The steep swing indicates market conviction in Meta's ability to execute a massive monetization cycle via AI integration and Reels advertising, targeting significant multi-year revenue growth. | 6 minutes ago |
| Will the earnings call not air? |
↓
-42.9%
|
17% | $NVDA | Betting on systemic risk or macro uncertainty causing significant market panic and forcing highly anticipated corporate announcements to be delayed, muted, or canceled. | 6 minutes ago |